Topic: Transition to a low-carbon society and a sustainable future: a private sector perspective
Speaker: Onur Özgün is a senior researcher at the Strategic Research and Innovation Unit of DNV GL, an international ship class society, certification body and assurance provider, headquartered in Oslo, Norway
Two case studies will be presented. In the first case study, we use dynamic modeling tools to make a global forecast for the next 35 years. Based on existing models and our own estimates on key assumptions on population, productivity, energy intensity and carbon intensity, we created a forecast for energy use, carbon emissions and resource use. We predict that on average, people will have better access to education, energy, food, clean water and sanitation as GDP per capita will continue to grow in the developing world. But the GDP growth rate will be lower and approach a standstill in the developed world; a pattern that will be repeated by developing nations as they too transition into post-industrial societies. Global energy use will increase over the next 15 years, but thereafter will start to plateau as reduced energy intensity counteracts energy demand linked to GDP growth. Renewable energy will double its share after 2030 and provide half of the energy used by the world in 2050, but the world will still burn unsustainable levels of coal, oil and gas. We then used our forecast and other input to assess the likelihood of achieving UN’s Sustainable Development Goals for the five economic regions of the world by 2030, and with other private-sector partners, discuss the role of private sector in achieving these goals. In the second case study, I will present a system dynamics modeling application, focusing on the future of the offshore oil production. As an input to strategic planning of oil production sector, this model analyzes how the oil production may evolve over time under different oil demand scenarios and uncertainties regarding supply side.
Onur Özgün is a senior researcher at the Strategic Research and Innovation Unit of DNV GL, an international ship class society, certification body and assurance provider, headquartered in Oslo, Norway. His areas of expertise include energy transition, urban sustainability, and simulation modeling and gaming, with particular emphasis on system dynamics models of socio-economic systems. Onur holds a PhD in industrial engineering from Boğaziçi University, Istanbul. Prior to joining DNV GL in 2015, he worked as a post-doctoral researcher in Resilient Cities Lab at Northeastern University, Boston. Onur has published several journal articles and conference papers on the issues of serious games, energy transitions and business cycles. His current work explores drivers of the transition to a low carbon economy and its consequences on the industry and the society.